Trump Touts Cheaper Turkey Day, But Are Savings Really That Big?

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Thanksgiving Dinner Prices Plummeting Under Trump’s Economic Policies, But Is the Story a Little Too Simple?

President Donald Trump has been touting cheaper Thanksgiving dinners as proof his economic policies are working, and indeed, numbers show that holiday meals cost less this year. However, the story behind those savings is a bit more complicated than what the president lets on.

Walmart announced early this week that its Thanksgiving meal basket costs 25% less than last year, with a price tag of $40 compared to around $55 in 2024. This dramatic decrease was repeatedly highlighted by Trump as proof his economic policies are paying off. Speaking at the American Business Forum (ABC) on Wednesday, he declared, "It is 25% lower than one year ago. That’s a big deal" (1). He returned to this topic throughout the week, posting on Truth Social that "2025 Thanksgiving dinner under Trump is 25% lower than 2024 Thanksgiving dinner under Biden" (2).

The Catch: A Broader View of the Numbers

While it is undoubtedly true that Walmart’s meal basket is cheaper this year, Trump hasn’t touched upon an important detail – the basket is smaller. The 2025 meal package includes only 23 items, a drop from 29 in the previous year. Notably missing from this year’s bundle are pecan pie, sweet potatoes, celery, onions, marshmallows, whipped topping, and extra cans of soup. Walmart has also opted for store-brand products instead of the name brands they used earlier, replaced cranberry sauce with fresh cranberries, and substituted basic dinner rolls with Hawaiian ones.

When NBC News asked Trump about the smaller bundle, he was seemingly unaware, responding, "Well, I haven’t heard that." Economists at Wells Fargo painted a broader picture when evaluating Thanksgiving meal costs. According to their findings, even though food prices measured by the Consumer Price Index are up 2.7% from last year, the cost of Wells Fargo’s Thanksgiving menu has fallen by about 2-3%. This might seem less dramatic than Trump’s numbers but still represents a meaningful decrease in an economy that continues to grapple with rising costs (3).

Estimating All-Store-Brand and Name-Brand Prices

Based on Well Fargo’s numbers, an all-store-brand Thanksgiving meal for 10 would cost approximately $80. Switching to only name-brand products raises the total to around $95. However, by mixing brands strategically – a typical holiday tradition already practiced by many American families – even more savings can be achieved.

Food inflation remains sticky overall, but certain popular dishes are experiencing some relief. The economists at Wells Fargo noted that protein sources such as beef and eggs have seen significant price increases. The rise in CPI’s food-at-home prices stems mainly from increased costs of beef and veal (4). However, many holiday staples such as turkey, potatoes, green beans, and canned pumpkin continue to have prices relatively stable or decreasing.

A Rare Admission: Tariffs and Food Prices

Following Friday’s executive order reversing tariffs on dozens of food products including coffee, avocados, bananas, tomatoes, beef, coffee, and tropical fruits (5), Trump is acknowledging that his economic policies may not solely benefit consumer interests. This change acknowledges a significant aspect of the economy not just under the present administration but perhaps most American administrations – balancing trade with affordability.

During this week’s travel on Air Force One, Trump discussed tariffs, stating that they ‘may sometimes increase consumer prices.’ His decision was in response to Democrats’ election successes and growing concerns over rising prices (5). These actions may signal a shift towards putting customer needs at the forefront of policy decisions.

Walmart’s Meal Prices: What Comes with the Savings?

While Walmart’s 25% drop is indeed considerable, it is worth noting that its Thanksgiving meal bundle comes with missing items such as pecan pie and cranberry sauce. Forcing a comparison with last year’s costs, we can see why such figures are more of an anomaly rather than reflective of broader market changes.

Given these insights from both Trump’s policies and economic findings, families may find it more beneficial to mix shopping tactics or brands for their Thanksgiving meals this year. This strategic shopping approach could help deliver a traditional meal at about 2% to 3% less cost than last year (6).

As retailers battle fiercely for the holiday dollar, with significant promotions across various stores including Lidl, Aldi, Target, and Amazon (6), Thanksgiving dinner can be just as enjoyable without breaking the bank. Just remember – prices might fluctuate between retailers – you need to do some comparison shopping.

For families trying to make ends meet or simply looking for ways to save money for this special occasion, there’s always a chance to make it happen when everyone gets involved in finding those good deals.

Conclusion

Trump is correct: Thanksgiving dinner has gotten cheaper under his policies. Yet the reason behind that decrease has far-reaching implications than just an economic one – the numbers Trump cites include Walmart’s meal basket being smaller this year, which was not accounted for. The Friday tariff rollback marks a significant change of heart by Trump on tariffs and food prices. Given these dynamics, it may not be so crucial to save 25% when families can achieve almost the same effect through strategic shopping – but read those fine prints about what comes with your Thanksgiving meal bundle.

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